As summer approaches, there’s buzz in the air about potential algal blooms in western Lake Erie. Experts from NOAA and their research partners anticipate that this year’s harmful algal bloom (HAB) will be mild to moderate, with a severity index scoring a 3, which warns residents to be cautious.

The HAB severity index gauges the bloom’s intensity by evaluating the algae’s biomass — or the amount collected over the peak blooming period. Understanding this rating helps inform the community about potential health and environmental risks. Blooms that score above a 5 are considered severe and can lead to unpleasant effects, such as beach closures and challenges for local businesses relying on water activities.

For those unfamiliar, harmful algal blooms involve cyanobacteria, commonly known as blue-green algae. While they may sound innocuous, some blooms produce microcystin, a toxin harmful to both humans and wildlife. This toxin can complicate drinking water treatment processes and create long-lasting economic impacts, estimated to exceed $70 million annually for the Lake Erie area.

What’s fascinating is that the size of a bloom is not a guarantees of its toxicity. Each bloom presents its own characteristics, requiring continuous research and monitoring. NOAA is ever-evolving in its approach, developing advanced tools for detecting and predicting the nature of these blooms.

Nicole LeBoeuf, the Director of NOAA’s National Ocean Service, emphasized the importance of these forecasts, stating, “Harmful algal bloom forecasts are critically important for communities around Lake Erie to plan and prepare.” By spreading awareness and understanding, we can take proactive measures to protect public health while enjoying the beautiful lake.

The Lake Erie HAB Forecast website, managed by NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), serves as a vital resource. It offers real-time predictions and visualizations of where blooms may develop on the lake’s surface, which is crucial for water treatment operators relying on deep water intakes.

In partnership with several regional agencies and universities, NOAA’s research efforts are robust. With a seasonal forecast update expected in late July, the community will be kept in the loop about any changes in bloom dynamics based on nutrient loads entering the lake.

As we look forward to a summer filled with sunny days and outdoor fun, NOAA’s forecasts allow us to enjoy Lake Erie with peace of mind, helping to navigate potential hazards and fostering a spirit of community resilience.